Ferrari: The Luce at the End of the Tunnel
Ferrari ($RACE) is down ~11% YTD and ~31% in the past year. Today it fell a further 5.5% after unveiling the Luce, its first full EV, the stock is sitting near its 52-week low of $312.51.
The market has been selling Ferrari for eight months and is selling it again today for a new reason. The business has not changed, the order book extends to the end of 2027, the EBITDA margin is 39% and a buyback programme is currently ongoing.
So Why It Has Been Falling
The decline kicked off at the start of October 2025, with $RACE's single worst trading day, down 15-16%. Management guided 5% annualised revenue growth through 2030, a deceleration from 17% in 2023 and 12% in 2024. Additionally, they also reduced their EV mix target from 40% to 20% by 2030, with hybrids and petrol making up the remainder.
That interpretation misses how Ferrari operates, they limit production intentionally. It shipped 13,752 cars in 2024 and will ship a similar number this year. It does not scale by making more cars, it scales by making more expensive, more personalised cars to a fixed and carefully managed clientele. The revenue per car matters more than volume, a 5% revenue growth target on a business generating €7.5B annually with 39% EBITDA margins is not a slowdown in traditional terms. It is a deliberate choice by management to protect the brand by keeping supply scarce and pricing power intact.
Today's decline is due to a different fear, that the Luce, a four-door five-seater EV priced at €550,000/$640,000, represents a departure from Ferrari's identity that will alienate its customer base. Porsche and Lamborghini both scaled back EV programmes citing weak demand, Ferrari has opted to go in the other direction.
What The Business Actually Looks Like
Per the 6-K filed May 5th, Ferrari reported Q1 2026 net revenues of €1.848B, up 3% year-over-year or 6% stripping out currency movements. EBITDA €722M at a 39.1% margin, EBIT €548M at 29.7% margin, Industrial free cash flow €653M, Net profit €413M and EPS €2.33 versus €2.30 in Q1 2025. Total debt is €2.929B against cash of €1.857B, net debt of approximately €1.072B. Modest leverage for a business generating €1.5B in annual free cash flow.
Shipments declined slightly to 3,436 units from 3,593 (deliberately), Ferrari designed Q1 deliveries to be lower due to a planned model changeover. The Middle East conflict did not impact total delivery volumes, with Ferrari rerouting shipments via air freight and bringing forward deliveries to other regions. The US was the strongest performing single market in Q1, with 929 deliveries, a 7.9% increase year-over-year.
The F80, Ferrari's most powerful road car ever priced at €3.6M, was revealed in October 2024 and entered production ramp-up in Q1 2026, contributing directly to personalisation and margin growth in the quarterly results. All 799 units were sold out before the public reveal.